Posts Tagged ‘PUT’

Another Profitable Options Strategy – The Credit Spread

October 5th, 2009

Today, I’m going to talk about another options strategy… the CREDIT SPREAD. This is actually a directional strategy, which means you have to be either bullish or bearish about a stock.

Let’s start with an example… Suppose you are a big iPhone fan and are extremely bullish about Apple (AAPL). You looked at the chart and identified strong support at $148.28. You believe that there is no way AAPL is going to fall below $148.28. In that case, you can choose to sell the nearest OTM Put, which is the $145 Put. In order to protect yourself from any unexpected plunge in the stock, you buy an even lower OTM Put, which is the $140 Put.

Example of a AAPL Bull Put Spread

Example of a AAPL Bull Put Spread

Let’s just suppose you sold the $145 Put for $2.70 and bought the $140 Put for $1.20. What you’ve done is you’ve just sold a Bull Put Spread. Since the $145 Put that you sold is more expensive than the $140 Put, this spread is actually a credit spread; you earn premium upfront (($2.70 – $1.20)*100 = $150 per lot in this case).

If you are right and AAPL never trades below $145 for the entire period till expiry day, both the $145 and $140 Put options will expire worthless and you are a few hundred bucks richer.

However, if you are wrong (say Steve Jobs is suddenly ousted from AAPL again) and the stock price plunges to $100 on expiry date, your lose is limited. This is because although you will be forced to buy AAPL stock at $145 now, you can turn around and sell that same stock at $140, since you bought a $140 Put to protect yourself. Thus, your loss is only limited to $500 for every Put you sold.

But wait! Remember you earned a premium of $150 on that fateful day when you decided to sell the spread? This means your loss is actually $500 – $150 = $350 per lot (excluding commissions). That’s not half as bad as if you had not bought the $140 Put. In which case you would have lost ($145 – $100)*100 per lot… Even after deducting the premium that you earned, you would still have lost $4500 – $270 = $4230 per lot…

That’s the merit of doing a credit spread, as opposed to selling a naked option (i.e. selling an option without buying another to protect yourself)… Better safe than sorry.

Should you buy or sell options?

September 17th, 2009

Back in 2006, when I was introduced to options trading, the first thing I did was to hit the library to find out more about this exciting financial product.

I forgot the title of the first book I read, but I remember it gave a very simple and nice introduction to what options are. One thing I distinctively remembered about that incident was that after reading the book, I thought to myself: “Why are options considered dangerous?”

I mean, since options are much cheaper than stocks themselves, and the most you can lose is the premium you paid, why are they dangerous? Aren’t they the safest way to bet in the stock market? Yet, I also recalled how Nick Lessen broke Barrings, since that happened in my country, Singapore… I left the library feeling perplexed, but nonetheless hopeful… I guess, like many other newbies, I was “lured” by the concept of limited risk, unlimited potential… Years later, I would reflect on that moment and laugh at my own naivety….

Coming from a mathematical background, I understood the concept of leverage easily. I understood how leverage can be risky, so I figured that I would only buy one lot each time. Even if I lost 100% of my premium, it would only be a small percentage of my account… However, what I did not understand at that point was how the odds are heavily stacked against an options buyer….

Now, I understand that buying options is pretty much like buying lottery… both promise a CHANCE to win big with only a small investment… but the chance of winning is so slim that eventually in the long run, we’ll end up losing…. we may convince ourselves otherwise, thinking that with all those fanciful technical analysis, we are not gamblers… but that is so wrong…

If we consider the odds of buying options, we’ll realize that 80% of the time, options expire worthless. As an options buyer, you only have a 20% chance of winning…. that means, your average profit must be 4 times your average losses in order for you to just break even… and that is without considering commission… if you add in commission, your chance of breaking even is even smaller…

In contrast, an options seller is like the lottery company, they can afford to pay out millions of dollars to winners each month, because only a small (probably negligible) percentage of lottery buyers will win… the odds are so much in their favor… the amount that they collect from those who lost, more than cover for the winning payout… Similarly, options sellers have a high chance of winning, and their frequent profit will more than cover for their occasional losses…

I learnt about the odds of options trading for some time before I fully appreciate it… In the beginning, I traded options like stocks, buying CALLs and PUTs to bet on the market direction… I won some, I lost some… but after 1 year and $1000 down, I was finally convinced that options buying is too difficult a game for me… To win, you need to be right about the direction AND the timing… Now, I don’t predict market direction… I spend less than 15minutes trading each night, and after selling options for about 6 months, I’ve made back what I lost and some more….

So to answer the question in the title…. SELL!!!