Archive for September, 2009

The Power of Beliefs: Tony Robbins, Frank Kern and John Reese

September 28th, 2009

I’ve got this great video to share… It features Tony Robbins interviewing two of his very successful students, Frank Kern and John Reese.

Everybody knows Tony, he’s probably the world’s best peak performance coach and motivational speaker. I’ve read two of his best-selling books and purchased his audio program… His enthusiasm is contagious and he really opened my mind and changed my beliefs… If you have yet to read his books, or you are totally skeptical about these self-help books, believing that Tony Robbins is just a salesman trying to dupe the naive into buying his books, products, seminars etc… I would urge you to give yourself another chance… Read with an open mind and YOU WILL see improvements in your life…

I know some of you would argue that these “feel good” books are just that, they make you feel good but after a while, the effect fades off and you’re back to your old miserable life… now made worse because you had just acted like a fool for the past few weeks believing in those self-help scams…

I would like to remind you that everyday, we eat to counter our hunger, but after a few hours, we feel hungry again… does it mean we should not eat at all… since the effects will only last a few hours? No, I’m sure you’ll find that ridiculous… maybe you’ll argue that if you don’t eat, you’ll die; but to me, living a life without a goal, without a belief that you can achieve what you aim for, is really, well.. pretty much like death…

I do get disappointed, I do get tired… and there are definitely times when “motivated” is the last word I would use to describe how I feel…. but every time I feel like giving up, I’ll pop into a bookstore and pick up a self-help book… or I’ll listen to Tony Robbins’ audio program… just to give myself a healthy dose of motivation.. like medicine, they cure my sense of hopelessness and push me forward again…

So, here’s a dose of motivation for you too… check out the video… especially around the 13:00 mark when Tony shared about the “Holy Grail of Belief”… truly inspirational… also listen to John Reese’s Porche story…. simply love that story… :) (btw, for those of you who are wondering, John Reese and Frank Kern are both very successful self-made millionaires… made their fortunes selling products on the Internet… Just google their names)

John Reese and Frank Kern

http://tonyrobbinstraining.com/320/interview-with-frank-kern-and-john-reese/

What are Options Greeks? – Part 2: Theta

September 27th, 2009

Today, let’s talk about another of my favorite options greek… The one that really makes money for me: Theta, a.k.a time decay…

According to the definition in my previous post, What are Options Greeks? – Part 1: Delta, Theta is the change in option price due to time passing. I’m not sure if this definition makes sense to you, so I’ll provide an example below:

Suppose I bought a $190 AAPL Oct Call Option last Fri, on 25th Sep 2009… That would have cost me about $2.70…

A $190 AAPL Call Option grants me the right to purchase the AAPL stock at $190.. however, as of last Fri, AAPL was trading at around $182, which means that the CALL option is fundamentally worthless… if that’s the case, why do I need to pay $2.70 for the option?

This $2.70 is what is known as the time value of the option… In other words, it is what the option is worth because of the time left before it expires… As long as the option has not expired, there is a chance that AAPL will rally above $190, say to $200… In which case, I can exercise my option and buy AAPL for $190, and sell it immediately on the market for a profit of $10 per share…. Thus, I often refer to “Time Value” as the “Price of Hope”… As long as the option has not expired, there is still hope that the option will become profitable…

If time value is the price of hope, then theta is measure of hopelessness…. It measures how the option price will decrease for every passing day…. For instance, the theta of the AAPL $190 Call Option is currently -0.13, which means that if all things remain unchanged (e.g. if AAPL stock price does not move at all), the option price will decrease by $0.13 everyday… As an option buyer, your theta will always be negative… In contrast, as an option seller, you’ll enjoy positive theta because with every passing day, the option will lose money, allowing you to buy back the option at a cheaper price if you so decide…

Time is Running Out...

Source: http://www.funnytimes.com/playground/img/121330972131185.png

In fact, time decay is the greatest enemy of all options buyer… because even if you are right in predicting the stock’s direction, if the stock does not move enough to counter time decay, you will still lose money.. For instance, if AAPL only moves to $191 when my Oct option expires, I will still lose money because I paid $2.70 for hope…

In contrast, option sellers absolutely love time decay…. Even if the stock does not move at all, time decay will continue to make money for them with every passing day…

What are Options Greeks? – Part 1: Delta

September 26th, 2009

If you have been even remotely interested in options trading, you would probably have heard of the options greeks, and seen those weird symbols that you thought should only belong in a Science or Math textbook…. So, what exactly are those greeks? In this post, I’m going to briefly introduce the options greeks and talk about one of my favourite greeks: Delta.

Simply stated, greeks are just measurements that help us estimate how the price of an option will change in response to changes in the underlying stock price, interest rate, volatility and time passing.

The table below shows the five options greeks… and what they measure:

Options Greeks

Options Greeks

The best way to explain is through an example… In this post, I’ll concentrate on the delta, leaving the other greeks for my future posts….

The chart shows the deltas for AAPL Nov 09 Options… The current price of AAPL is $184…

Delta

Delta

The left side of the chart shows the Call Options… Look at the row that is highlighted… It shows that the Nov 09 AAPL CALL option, with a strike price of $190, has a delta of 0.45. What this means is that when AAPL’s stock price increases by $1 (with all things being equal), the $190 Call option will rise by $0.45. Since the current bid price of the option is $8.50, we’ll expect the price to rise to $8.95 when the AAPL stock increases by $1.

In contrast, look at the Put Options on the right of the chart… We can see that all the deltas are negative… Look at the row that is highlighted… It shows that the Nov 09 AAPL PUT option, with a strike price of $150, has a delta of -0.10. What this means is that when AAPL’s stock price increases by $1, the Put $150 option will increase by -$0.10 (in other words, fall by $0.10). Since the current bid price of the option is $1.61, we’ll expect the price to fall to $1.51 when the AAPL stock increases by $1.

There are a few things to highlight about an option’s delta

  1. CALL options will always have positive deltas while PUT options will have negative deltas (i.e. their value decreases when the underlying stock price increases)
  2. An option’s delta does not stay the same throughout its lifetime.. The $190 CALL option, that currently has a delta of $0.45, will have a different delta as the stock price changes. For instance, if AAPL suddenly plunges to $100, we’ll expect the delta of the $190 CALL option to drastically decrease…
  3. The absolute value of a delta can also be viewed as the probability of the option expiring in-the-money…You’ll notice that for CALL options, the $130 option has a delta of 0.97.. This means that the option price will increase by $0.97 for every $1 increase in the stock price… It also means that there is a 97% chance that the option will expire in-the-money.. In other words, it is almost a certainty that the option will expire in-the-money… (That makes sense, since the option is already so deeply in-the-money at present…)In contrast, the $260 Call option has a delta of 0.02, indicating a 2% chance of expiring in-the-money. That is because $260 is very far from the current stock price (which is about $184).. so it is almost impossible for the $260 option to finish in-the-money…